Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 090100Z – 091200Z


Thunderstorms are expected tonight over parts of the Southwest, and
isolated storms are possible late near the Carolina coast.

…01z Update…

Scattered convection continues across the southwestern US this
evening, primarily north of a strong mid-level jet that extends from
the northern Baja Peninsula into NM. Early-evening water-vapor
imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort digging southeast toward
the lower CO River Valley. This feature should continue to encourage
convection immediately downstream as steeper lapse rates sag toward
the international border region.

Across the Carolinas, weak surface trough has developed off the
Southeast coast and this boundary should be the primary focus for
potential convection during the overnight hours. Isolated
thunderstorms are noted along this feature roughly 100 southeast of
SC/NC border. Further destabilization is likely necessary inland
before deeper updrafts evolve that could support lightning, most
likely after 06z.

..Darrow.. 12/09/2019


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