Valid 062000Z – 071200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
No severe thunderstorms are expected this period.
…20Z Outlook Update…
Thunderstorm coverage has shrunk considerably that past couple of
hours, as the supporting mid-level short wave impulse gradually
accelerates eastward toward the south Atlantic Coast region. As
mid-level subsidence and warming overspreads the north central Gulf
coast, and low-level moisture return becomes increasing cut-off from
the favorable mid-level cooling/ascent, thunderstorm probabilities
probably will become increasingly negligible through 22-00Z.
There are no changes.
As the upper impulse approaches the south Atlantic coast,
destabilization may become supportive increasing thunderstorm
activity near the coastal waters. But this is still expected to
Thunderstorm probabilities appear likely to remain negligible near
and inland of the northern California/southern Oregon coast until
after 07/06Z. Thereafter, any increase in thunderstorm
probabilities may largely be confined to immediate coastal areas and
the Shasta/Siskiyou region into the western slopes of the northern
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2019/
…Gulf Coast Region…
A strong and progressive shortwave trough over AR/LA will track
across the Gulf Coast states today, with an associated cluster of
showers and thunderstorms affecting parts of MS/AL/GA/FL. The
low-level air mass ahead of the convection is not particularly
unstable and low-level wind fields are weak. Therefore, storms are
expected to have limited intensity and pose little risk of severe
wind or hail.
A large upper trough is approaching the CA/OR coast, with the
initial band of precipitation moving ashore this morning. Cooling
temperatures aloft and persistent onshore flow will eventually pose
a risk of deep convection and a few lightning strikes later this
afternoon and tonight. Some small hail cannot be ruled out in the
stronger cores, but no severe weather is forecast.