Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 052000Z – 061200Z


The risk for severe storms appears negligible across the U.S.
through tonight.

…20Z Outlook Update…
Little appreciable change has been made. Probabilities for
convection capable of producing lightning may gradually increase
from parts of southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/northern Texas
Panhandle vicinity into the I-35 corridor of Oklahoma this evening,
in response to destabilization driven largely by mid-level cooling
in the exit region of a 50-70 kt cyclonic 500 mb jet. As this
forcing encounters moistening southerly return flow, now evident
along/east of the I-35 corridor of Texas, increasing scattered
thunderstorm activity is expected overnight across eastern Oklahoma
into Arkansas, where CAPE for most unstable elevated moist parcels
may exceed 500 J/kg. Some hail may become possible in strongest
cells, but shear within the convective layer may not be particularly
strong, and it still seems likely that activity will remain

..Kerr.. 12/05/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 0944 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2019/

Most of the thunderstorm potential through the forecast period will
be tied to a compact mid-level shortwave trough currently
approaching the Four Corners. The eastward advancement of this wave
will contribute to cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates, which
should foster development of a few lightning flashes across
southwest Kansas and vicinity around 00Z. This thunder risk will
spread east-southeastward in tandem with the shortwave and spread
across Arkansas overnight through 12Z Friday.

Outside of this region, negligible buoyancy will limit the risk of
deep convection and the severe risk will remain very low.


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