Valid 051630Z – 061200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains
eastward into Arkansas through early Friday.
Most of the thunderstorm potential through the forecast period will
be tied to a compact mid-level shortwave trough currently
approaching the Four Corners. The eastward advancement of this wave
will contribute to cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates, which
should foster development of a few lightning flashes across
southwest Kansas and vicinity around 00Z. This thunder risk will
spread east-southeastward in tandem with the shortwave and spread
across Arkansas overnight through 12Z Friday.
Outside of this region, negligible buoyancy will limit the risk of
deep convection and the severe risk will remain very low.