Valid 051300Z – 061200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning Friday
in the Arkansas vicinity.
A compact shortwave trough over UT will move east-southeast and
likely reach the Arklatex around sunrise Friday. Low-level warm
advection ahead of this feature in conjunction with cooling
temperatures aloft should support thin elevated buoyancy developing
after midnight. Towards 09Z, a few thunderstorms may form within a
swath of scattered showers centered on central to eastern AR.
…Southern High Plains…
Scant buoyancy rooted near 700 mb may be adequate for a couple
lightning flashes during the late afternoon to early evening where
large-scale ascent is strongest immediately ahead of the compact
shortwave trough. While nonzero, overall thunderstorm probabilities
appear to be less than 10 percent given the rather meager buoyancy.