Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 051300Z – 061200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning Friday
in the Arkansas vicinity.

…AR Vicinity…
A compact shortwave trough over UT will move east-southeast and
likely reach the Arklatex around sunrise Friday. Low-level warm
advection ahead of this feature in conjunction with cooling
temperatures aloft should support thin elevated buoyancy developing
after midnight. Towards 09Z, a few thunderstorms may form within a
swath of scattered showers centered on central to eastern AR.

…Southern High Plains…
Scant buoyancy rooted near 700 mb may be adequate for a couple
lightning flashes during the late afternoon to early evening where
large-scale ascent is strongest immediately ahead of the compact
shortwave trough. While nonzero, overall thunderstorm probabilities
appear to be less than 10 percent given the rather meager buoyancy.

..Grams.. 12/05/2019

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