Valid 120100Z – 121200Z
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MT AND ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER…
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are likely across
portions of the northern and central Great Plains. Damaging wind
gusts, and large hail remain possible.
Strong convection that developed off the higher terrain of southeast
WY/CO is gradually maturing as it advances east into more
moist/buoyant air mass, especially along the NE/KS border. Latest
diagnostic data exhibits seasonally large CAPE values with adequate
shear for an upward evolving MCS. Organizing cluster of storms over
northeast CO/northwest KS is expected to propagate east this
evening, just north of a synoptic front draped along the I-70
corridor. As this activity matures, damaging wind threat should
increase, especially if a bow-type squall line evolves.
Farther north, strongly forced convection over central MT is
spreading east into the northern High Plains. This activity is
expected to remain organized, possibly evolving into an MCS as it
approaches the ND border region. With LLJ expected to focus across
western Dakotas tonight, a long-lived convective event seems likely.