Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 031200Z – 041200Z


Across the CONUS, no appreciable risk for severe weather is
expected. Isolated lightning strikes may occur along a sliver of the
central California coast, but coverage will likely be well below

The upper-level low off the coast of New England will move
northeastward into the Canadian Maritime provinces. In its wake,
another lower-amplitude impulse will progress through the upper
Midwest into the Northeast by the end of the period. Farther west,
the upper-level closed low west of the California coast will meander
southwestward before rejoining the subtropical jet stream and moving
near the shore very late in the forecast period. At the surface,
high pressure across much of the West and Plains states will foster
offshore flow along the Gulf and southeastern coastal regions.

The will be no appreciable risk for severe weather today. Along with
a distinct lack of upper-level forcing, surface conditions across
the lower 48 will be generally cool and dry. Towards the end of the
period, as an upper-level low approaches the California coast, weak
mid-level ascent and cooling may promote marginal instability. A few
isolated lightning strikes are possible with what will primarily be
showers along the central/southern California coasts. Coverage
should remain well below 10%. Lightning associated with the surface
cyclone off the coast of Maine is possible, but potential for this
activity to reach the shore is low.

..Wendt.. 12/03/2019


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