Valid 011630Z – 021200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
…Coastal Southeast States/Florida…
Showers/isolated thunderstorms continue to accompany a cold front as
it progresses east-southeastward toward the coastal Southeast and
across northern Florida. A relatively moist/modestly unstable air
mass precedes the front across northern Florida into southeast
Georgia. However, weak mid-level lapse rates will likely temper
updraft vigor, with a tendency for convection to remain anafrontal
coincident with a veering of surface winds ahead of the front. While
a couple of thunderstorm-related stronger wind gusts could occur in
areas such as coastal southeast Georgia/far northeast Florida, the
overall severe potential should remain rather limited.
…Eastern Ohio to Pennsylvania/West Virginia border…
Isolated thunderstorms will likely develop this afternoon,
particularly within a narrow warm sector near the surface low and
nearby occluded front. Low-level moisture will remain limited (40s F
surface dewpoints), but steep low/mid-level lapse rates could allow
for a couple of stronger low-topped surface-based storms this
afternoon. Given ambient vorticity near the low and adequate
low-level CAPE, small hail, a stronger wind gust and/or a funnel
could occur, but the overall potential for a severe-caliber storm is
still expected to remain very low.