Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 011300Z – 021200Z


Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

…Southeast GA and coastal SC into north FL…
A narrow, low-topped convective line should accompany passage of an
eastward-moving cold front across the region into this afternoon.
Amid weak low-level lapse rates, appreciable destabilization should
be limited to a narrow plume of upper 60s surface dew points
translating east across north FL with pockets of stratus hindering
insolation farther north. Large-scale ascent will continue to be
weak and predominately anafrontal amid veered low-level winds,
suggesting deeper convection may struggle to be sustained. While a
strong wind gust or two is possible, the overall risk does not
appear to warrant a level 1 (Marginal) highlight this outlook.

…Eastern OH vicinity…
A broken band of low-topped convection should develop this afternoon
near the surface cyclone associated with a potent upper low tracking
east across the Midwest. As surface temperatures warm through the
50s, steep low-level lapse rates will support meager buoyancy.
However, unlike yesterday in IA, the potential of adequate low-level
hodograph curvature for a tornado risk appears rather limited. Small
hail and gusty winds may accompany the most robust updrafts for a
couple hours in the late afternoon.

..Grams.. 12/01/2019


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