Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 011200Z – 021200Z


A strong wind gust or two may accompany thunderstorms in portions of
the Southeast today. However, the threat for organized severe
weather appears very low.

A potent upper-level low will continue to track eastward into the
Lower Great Lakes region before taking on a more southeastward
motion by the end of the forecast period. At the surface, a
relatively broad surface low will be present from northern Illinois
into southern Lower Michigan. This feature will initially weaken
before redeveloping/deepening in the Mid-Atlantic region. A cold
front will be positioned from central Ohio, arcing eastward near the
Appalachians, then south-southwestward into the Florida Panhandle.

Thunderstorms will be possible along the front. Though strong low-
and mid-level wind fields will be present, the potential for
surface-based convection continues to be low. Surface-based storms
are most likely to occur in parts of the eastern Florida Panhandle,
portions of North Florida, eastern Georgia, and southern South
Carolina. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints may support MLCAPE of up to
250-500 J/kg. Mid-level ascent will primarily be focused across the
Mid-Atlantic, but cloud cover should significantly limit
destabilization. Mid-level height falls are not forecast to increase
within the Southeast until after 00Z. While a strong wind gust or
two may accompany the more robust convective cells, meager buoyancy
and lack of upper-level forcing should limit storm coverage and the
potential for a more organized severe wind threat.

..Wendt.. 12/01/2019


Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.