Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 010100Z – 011200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES…

…SUMMARY…
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening
across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast
States. A threat for a tornado, hail and isolated wind damage will
be possible.

…Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States…
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over the mid
Missouri Valley with an associated upper-level trough extending
southward into the central and southern Plains. An impressive 100 to
120 kt mid-level jet is rounding the base of the trough. At the
surface, a cold front is moving southeastward across the Arklatex
and Ozarks. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass is located from
southeast Texas northeastward into Mississippi. Thunderstorms are
ongoing along the northwestern edge of the moist sector. The RAP is
estimating MLCAPE ahead of the convection from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. In
addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs show strong deep-layer shear with
0-6 km shear estimated in the 60 to 70 kt range. This environment
will continue to support supercell development this evening. The RAP
is analyzing the low-level jet over northeast Louisiana. This
feature is forecast to gradually strengthen and move northeastward
across Mississippi this evening. In response, forecast soundings
have 0-3 km storm relative helicity reaching the 350 to 450 m2/s2
range across much of the central Gulf Coast States which will
continue an isolated tornado threat through the mid evening. A
tornado or two will be possible with the strongest supercells. A
wind damage and hail threat may also occur with supercells and
organized multicells.

..Broyles.. 12/01/2019

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