Valid 291630Z – 301200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS TO WESTERN ARKANSAS…
Isolated severe storms are possible late tonight across parts of
east/central Oklahoma and North Texas to western Arkansas.
…Central/eastern Oklahoma and North Texas to western Arkansas…
Overall forecast details/reasoning are unchanged from prior
outlooks. Satellite/radar imagery at late morning continue to
reflect prevalent multi-layer cloud cover and light rain from the
Edwards Plateau/west-central Texas into north-central Texas and the
eastern half of Oklahoma. Thick stratus is also prevalent along the
Texas coastal plain where a maritime air mass with lower 70s F
surface dewpoints is currently located.
This richer moisture will steadily develop northward today and
tonight within an evolving warm sector in advance of a cold front
that will reach central portions of Kansas/Oklahoma and North Texas
late tonight (06-12Z). A number of factors including persistent
cloud cover and the late-period arrival of richer moisture and more
appreciable mass response continue to suggest that any severe threat
will be confined to overnight/early Saturday, and probably just the
last few hours of the period (09Z-12Z; after 3AM CST).
Near/just ahead of the front, surface dew points should reach the
mid 60s across southeast Oklahoma overnight, resulting in corridor
of MLCAPE of 500 J/kg, with up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE across
north-central Texas. Convection should gradually increase/deepen in
a northeast/southwest-oriented corridor near the front late tonight.
Much of this convection will be at least slightly elevated. A couple
of instances of hail to near severe levels is a possibility,
although modest overall lapse rates and a tendency for updraft
interference will be limiting factors. A few near-surface-based
storms could occur mainly across far southeast Oklahoma/North Texas,
but near-neutral 0-1 km lapse rates and progged veer-back signatures
in the hodograph between 850-700 mb will probably curtail sustenance
of more robust low-level updraft rotation through 12Z/6AM CST.
…Southeast Kansas and southwest/south-central Missouri…
A few stronger storms could occur this evening, with some hail a
possibility owing to sufficient elevated buoyancy. However,
organized/sustained severe storms are not currently expected.