Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 260100Z – 261200Z


Isolated thunderstorms may continue this evening and tonight across
parts of the Southwest to the Four Corners region. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

Multiple instances of lightning have been detected over the past
hour or so from the NV/AZ border into northwestern AZ. An upper
trough will continue to amplify tonight across the western CONUS.
Current convective activity is occurring with strong large-scale
forcing in the left exit region of a 100 kt mid-level jet. Rapidly
cooling mid/upper-level temperatures as the upper trough develops
eastward may support just enough instability for isolated lighting
to continue this evening and overnight across northern AZ to the
Four Corners region.

Low-level moisture emanating from the Gulf will continue to stream
northward across parts of east TX into the lower MS River Valley as
surface cyclogenesis occurs over the southern/central High Plains.
However, a low-level inversion is expected to remain too strong to
support any thunderstorms across this region through the end of the

..Gleason.. 11/26/2019


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