Valid 252000Z – 261200Z
…NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
…SUMMARY…
Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along the Pacific
Northwest coast as well as a portion of the Great Basin. However,
coverage is expected to remain too sparse to include in a general
thunderstorm outlook.
…Discussion…
No changes have been made to previous forecast. Though isolated
lighting strikes are possible through early evening along the
Pacific Northwest coast and a portion of the Great Basin, very
marginal instability should limit coverage to less than 10%.
..Dial.. 11/25/2019
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2019/
…Synopsis…
An amplifying midlevel trough will progress east-southeastward from
western NV to the Four Corners overnight. Cool midlevel
temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will accompany this
trough across southern UT this afternoon and into the Four Corners
overnight. However, the low levels are relatively dry across this
area, which will greatly limit buoyancy, despite strong forcing for
ascent with the shortwave trough. Very isolated lightning strikes
cannot be ruled out, but confidence in storm coverage is too low for
an outlook area in this update, though this area will continue to be
re-evaluated through the afternoon/evening.
Elsewhere, steep lapse rates and weak buoyancy along the WA coast
this morning will tend to diminish later today as midlevel heights
rise and temperatures warm in the 700-500 mb layer. Across the
northwest Gulf coast, returning low-level moisture will likely
remain capped through this period.
$$