Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 251630Z – 261200Z


Thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States
today and tonight.

An amplifying midlevel trough will progress east-southeastward from
western NV to the Four Corners overnight. Cool midlevel
temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will accompany this
trough across southern UT this afternoon and into the Four Corners
overnight. However, the low levels are relatively dry across this
area, which will greatly limit buoyancy, despite strong forcing for
ascent with the shortwave trough. Very isolated lightning strikes
cannot be ruled out, but confidence in storm coverage is too low for
an outlook area in this update, though this area will continue to be
re-evaluated through the afternoon/evening.

Elsewhere, steep lapse rates and weak buoyancy along the WA coast
this morning will tend to diminish later today as midlevel heights
rise and temperatures warm in the 700-500 mb layer. Across the
northwest Gulf coast, returning low-level moisture will likely
remain capped through this period.

..Thompson/Darrow.. 11/25/2019


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