Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 241630Z – 251200Z


Isolated lightning flashes will be possible today across southeast
New England.

A deepening surface cyclone will move along the southeast New
England coast today, as an upstream shortwave trough approaches from
the Mid Atlantic. The unstable surface warm sector, and associated
near-surface-based storms just off the eastern Long Island coast,
will likely remain just offshore through the period. North of the
cyclone track, isolated lightning strikes will be possible with
weak, elevated convection. Farther south, weak low-level ascent
along the cold front will support some convection near the southeast
FL coast this afternoon. However, the weak forcing for ascent
combined with poor midlevel lapse rates and marginal buoyancy all
suggest that thunderstorm coverage will be sparse at best, and too
marginal for an outlook area.

Otherwise, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the eastern Gulf of
Alaska will begin to dig southeastward near the Pacific Northwest
coast tonight. Midlevel cooling will lead to some deepening of
buoyancy rooted near the surface, at least offshore. It appears
that destabilization inland will likely remain insufficient to
justify an outlook area.

..Thompson/Elliott.. 11/24/2019


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