Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 231200Z – 241200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over a part
of the Southeast States. Threat for severe weather appears low at
this time.

…Southeastern US…

Strong short-wave trough will eject across the MS Valley into AL by
24/00z. In response to this feature, weak surface low should evolve
along surface front over middle TN then lift into the upper OH
Valley during the latter half of the period. Strong 12hr mid-level
height falls will spread across the TN Valley region with
substantial forcing expected to extend into the Gulf States. This
large-scale forcing should encourage scattered convection
along/ahead of a pronounced cold front that will surge across the
southern Appalachians/GA by early evening. Observational data
suggests lower 60s surface dew points that have advanced into MS
will be shunted east ahead of the wind shift, which will contribute
to weak instability for possible thunderstorm activity. However,
forecast lapse rates are quite weak and overall buoyancy should
remain too meager to support long-lived robust updrafts, despite the
marked increase in vertical shear across this region. While gusty
winds could be noted with the strongest storms across AL into GA,
the threat of severe appears too low to warrant severe probs this
period.

..Darrow/Nauslar.. 11/23/2019

$$

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