Valid 221200Z – 231200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA…
…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorms are expected from the southern Plains into the lower
Mississippi Valley today. A marginal tornado threat and potential
for strong wind gusts will be possible.
…Southeast Texas/Louisiana…
An upper-level low will move eastward across the central High Plains
today as west-southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the southern
Plains. A cold front will advance southeastward onto the Texas
Coastal Plains today. Thunderstorms may be ongoing along or ahead of
the front at the start of the period. As the front moves
southeastward across southeast Texas around midday, convective
coverage should increase as surface temperatures warm and weak
destabilization occurs. Forecast soundings this afternoon ahead of
the front from Houston northeastward into north-central Louisiana
increase MLCAPE to around 500-800 J/kg and have moderate deep-layer
shear profiles. This environment should support a marginal
wind-damage threat with the stronger cells ahead of the front. If
isolated discrete cells can develop well ahead of the front along
the instability corridor, then a marginal tornado threat will also
be possible.
..Broyles/Nauslar.. 11/22/2019
$$