Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 212000Z – 221200Z


Thunderstorms are possible from the southwestern deserts to the
lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South region.

…20z Update…

The ongoing outlook remains on track and no changes have been made.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across portions of
the southwestern U.S. to the lower OH Valley through tonight, but
severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 11/21/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019/

Scattered thunderstorms will affect a large area from the desert
southwest into TN/KY today, with no organized severe thunderstorms

One area of some concern is across parts of northeast TX into
southeast OK and western AR. Ample low-level moisture has returned
to this region, along with sufficient vertical shear for some
convective organization. However, a combination of weak midlevel
lapse rates, limited heating/destabilization, and only weak
large-scale forcing is expected to keep convective initiation very
sparse and weak in the warm-sector ahead of the approaching cold
front. Thunderstorms along and behind the cold front will be much
more common, but with very little severe threat. Therefore will
continue the sub-5% severe probabilities across the region.


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