Valid 211630Z – 221200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Thunderstorms are possible from the southwestern deserts to the
lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South region.
Scattered thunderstorms will affect a large area from the desert
southwest into TN/KY today, with no organized severe thunderstorms
One area of some concern is across parts of northeast TX into
southeast OK and western AR. Ample low-level moisture has returned
to this region, along with sufficient vertical shear for some
convective organization. However, a combination of weak midlevel
lapse rates, limited heating/destabilization, and only weak
large-scale forcing is expected to keep convective initiation very
sparse and weak in the warm-sector ahead of the approaching cold
front. Thunderstorms along and behind the cold front will be much
more common, but with very little severe threat. Therefore will
continue the sub-5% severe probabilities across the region.