Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 211200Z – 221200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…

…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma
this afternoon and early this evening.

…Southern Plains…
Southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the southern Plains
today as a shortwave ridge moves northeastward across the central
Plains and Arklatex. At the surface, a cold front will advance
quickly southeastward across west Texas and Oklahoma today reaching
northwest Texas and southern Oklahoma this afternoon. Increasing
low-level convergence and warming surface temperatures should be
enough for thunderstorm development near the front in the mid to
late afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast
to be in the mid 60s F resulting in MLCAPE values reaching the 500
to 800 J/kg range late this afternoon. This combined with 0-6 km
shear in the 45 to 50 kt range should be enough for a marginal
severe threat with a few strong wind gusts and hail possible. The
marginal risk area for this outlook is maintained and spatially
adjusted northwestward to line up with the projected position of the
front during the mid afternoon.

..Broyles/Dean.. 11/21/2019

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