Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 202000Z – 211200Z


Isolated hail and/or severe gusts are possible this afternoon from
parts of the Texas Permian Basin and South Plains to the
southeastern Texas Panhandle and southwestern Oklahoma.

…20z Update…

Early-afternoon water-vapor imagery suggests lead short-wave trough
is ejecting across the southern High Plains with a secondary feature
evident just upstream over the southern Rockies. Clusters of
elevated convection are noted with the lead short wave and this
activity should spread across western OK into eastern KS later this
evening. It’s not entirely clear how much (or intense) deep
convection will evolve in the wake of this feature across
southwestern OK into west TX. However, partial sunshine and steeper
low-level lapse rates are contributing to somewhat greater buoyancy
for updrafts that might develop along surface confluence zone later
today. Will maintain MRGL Risk for this low-end severe threat.

..Darrow.. 11/20/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2019/

…Southern Plains…
A large upper trough is rotating northeastward across northwest
Mexico into parts of NM/TX today. A lead shortwave trough is
approaching the El Paso region, and will affect west TX by early
afternoon. Southerly low-level winds ahead of this feature will
strengthen through the day, aiding in the return of 50s and lower
60s dewpoints. Breaks in the clouds will yield afternoon MLCAPE
values around 1000 J/kg.

Present indications are that storms will form by early afternoon
across west TX and track eastward into southwest OK and
north-central TX through the evening. Forecast soundings show
relatively weak lapse rates, but sufficient vertical shear for
organized/rotating updrafts. HREF solutions appear to prefer storm
splits and left-moving members, while might enhance the risk of hail
in the stronger cores. However, limited thermodynamic support
should limit the risk of severe hail to only a few storms. Gusty
winds will also be possible in the strongest cells.


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