Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 171300Z – 181200Z

…NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

…Discussion…
The large-scale upper-level flow pattern will amplify with longwave
trough reinforcement east of the Rockies through tonight. A general
prevalence of dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms
over the CONUS. That said, thunderstorms will remain a possibility
in the Atlantic waters off of North Carolina, in general proximity
to the east-northeastward advancement of a southern-stream upper low
over the western Atlantic. The 12Z observed sounding from Morehead
City NC, with its reflections of only scant elevated instability,
substantiates the notion that thunderstorm potential is likely to
remain very limited today for inland areas.

..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/17/2019

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