Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 171200Z – 181200Z


The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., today through tonight.

A lower/mid tropospheric cyclone continues to evolve and deepen to
the east of the south Atlantic Coast. After a gradual eastward,
then northeastward, migration through this morning, models suggest
that there will be a more rapid northeastward acceleration across
the western Atlantic later today into tonight, as a vigorous
upstream short wave trough digs within the main belt of westerlies,
across and east of the Mississippi Valley.

It appears that the triple point of the occluding cyclone may
progress into and linger near or just east of the North Carolina
Outer Banks vicinity beyond 12Z this morning, providing a continuing
focus for convection and embedded thunderstorms. This probably will
continue to be aided by forcing for ascent to the northeast of the
mid-level cyclone center, and inflow of potentially unstable warm
sector air could persist into midday before gradually shifting
eastward away from coastal areas.

Otherwise, generally dry and/or stable conditions appear likely to
prevail across much of the remainder of the nation today through
tonight, with generally negligible risk for thunderstorms.

..Kerr/Cook.. 11/17/2019


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