Valid 170100Z – 171200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
…01Z Outlook Update…
A cluster of thunderstorms approaching North Carolina coastal areas
appears supported by an area of upper forcing for ascent, which has
been spreading northeastward, east of coastal areas, to the north of
the center of the mid-level cyclone. It appears that this activity
could spread into the North Carolina Outer and Inner Banks vicinity,
where the surface frontal zone remains closest to coastal areas.
Elevated instability to the immediate cool/northwest side of the
frontal zone is generally weak due to poor mid-level lapse rates,
and it is not clear that thermodynamic profiles evident in the
17/00Z raob from Morehead City NC will support lightning. It
appears that the risk for lightning becomes increasingly negligible
with inland extent from immediate coastal areas.