Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 161200Z – 171200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
The risk for severe storms appears negligible across the U.S., today
through tonight.

…Synopsis…
A short wave trough, with an embedded mid-level cyclonic circulation
center, is forecast to progress east of the Georgia/northern Florida
Atlantic coast early in the period. As this occurs, models suggest
that an initial surface low off the south Atlantic coast will
weaken, with a new center developing to the southwest, before the
increasingly vertically stacked cyclone deepens more rapidly and
progresses eastward, further away from the coast later today through
tonight.

The warm sector is expected to remain offshore of the Carolina
coast, including the North Carolina Outer Banks, through the period.
However, weak destabilization above/to the cool side of the front,
aided by cooling associated with the mid-level cold core, may be
sufficient to support scattered weak thunderstorms across parts of
the South Carolina coastal plain early today. The primary forcing
to support continuing thunderstorm development may then mostly shift
east of coastal areas, and remain offshore, later today through
tonight. However, due to discrepancies evident in the model output,
probabilities for thunderstorms may not be completely negligible
near the North Carolina coast, particularly the Outer Banks
vicinity.

Otherwise, generally dry and/or stable conditions are expected to
prevail across much of the nation, with negligible potential for
thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr/Cook.. 11/16/2019

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