Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 160100Z – 161200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning.

…01Z Outlook Update…
The primary surface cyclone is now offshore of the south Atlantic
Coast, where it is forecast to slowly deepen overnight. However, a
westward-tilting lower/mid tropospheric cyclonic circulation remains
centered over parts of southern Georgia and Alabama, and is forecast
to gradually migrate toward and east of northern Florida Atlantic
coastal areas through daybreak.

Around 850 mb, the Rapid Refresh suggests that the circulation is
currently centered over south central Georgia, with relatively warm
and moist air emanating from the Atlantic still wrapping inland to
the north and northeast of it, above a cooler and stable boundary
layer. It appears that this may linger across parts of southeast
Georgia and southern South Carolina into the overnight hours. As
the mid-level cold core (including -16 to -18 C at 500 mb) begins to
overspread this region by 05-06Z, steepening lower/mid tropospheric
lapse rates may support thermodynamic profiles (including CAPE of
250-500 J/kg) conducive to scattered weak thunderstorm development.

Otherwise, the risk for additional thunderstorms inland of southeast
Florida coastal areas appears to be diminishing. However, lift
associated with strengthening lower/mid tropospheric warm advection
could contribute to an increase in thunderstorm activity late this
evening into the overnight hours, mainly near or east of the North
Carolina coastal waters.

..Kerr.. 11/16/2019

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