Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 152000Z – 161200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning.

…20Z Update…
The general thunderstorm line has been shifted south across FL, in
conjunction with the progression of the cold front across the
Peninsula. Otherwise, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid.
See the previous discussion below for more details.

..Dean.. 11/15/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019/

A relatively dry and stable environment is present today over most
of the CONUS, with the exception of parts of the southeast states.
Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over
the central and southern FL peninsula as a weak cold front sags
across the area. Other storms will continue to occur off the
Carolina coast, with the potential for isolated lightning in the
coastal counties of NC tonight.

A small area of thunderstorm potential has been added to parts of
GA. Latest model guidance suggests a small pocket of sufficient
instability associated with the upper low will track across
central/southern GA – mainly after dark.


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