Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 151200Z – 161200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Scattered thunderstorms are possible Friday across parts of the
Southeast.

…Southeastern US…

Strong short-wave trough will dig southeast across the Mid-South and
off the GA coast by the end of the period. This will force northern
Gulf short-wave trough to eject quickly across the FL Peninsula by
18z. As a result, stronger low-level convergence should refocus off
the Atlantic coast as surface low becomes better defined offshore.
Observed/forecast buoyancy is not particularly noteworthy over the
FL Peninsula thus any thunderstorms that spread onshore should
struggle to attain meaningful intensity. With time, low-level warm
advection should drive thunderstorm development along/near warm
front draped just off the Southeast coast. Despite the strengthening
wind fields, poor instability will preclude severe probs this
period.

..Darrow/Cook.. 11/15/2019

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