Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 150100Z – 151200Z


A few thunderstorms are expected across Florida into coastal
portions of the Carolinas tonight.

…01z Update…

Strong southern-stream short-wave trough, located over the western
Gulf, is ejecting east in line with latest model guidance.
Large-scale forcing is not expected to approach the FL Peninsula
until later tonight. Until then, weak bands of convection are noted
about 40-50mi off the FL Gulf coast, arcing from west of the Keys –
west of SRQ – southeast of AAF. This activity should gradually
approach the coast later this evening but the air mass over the
Peninsula is not particularly buoyant (per TBW sounding). Even so,
thunder probabilities will increase over land later tonight when
influence of upper trough is greater.

..Darrow.. 11/15/2019


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