Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 142000Z – 151200Z


A few thunderstorms are expected across Florida into coastal
portions of the Carolinas mainly tonight.

No changes appear necessary at this time, as the ongoing outlook
continues to reflect anticipated convective evolution.

..Goss.. 11/14/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019/

Model solutions continue to depict the development of a weak surface
low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon – moving eastward
and affecting parts of the FL peninsula tonight. Visible satellite
imagery appears to confirm this development about 150nm west of FMY.
As this low approaches the FMY/TPA region after dark, vertical shear
profiles will slowly increase and become more favorable for rotating
storms. All CAM guidance suggests that a few intense cells may
occur over Gulf waters, but indicate that movement/development of
potentially severe storms inland is unlikely. Therefore will
maintain current outlook categories but continue to evaluate the
risk through the day.


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