Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 141630Z – 151200Z


A few thunderstorms are expected across Florida into coastal
portions of the Carolinas mainly tonight.

Model solutions continue to depict the development of a weak surface
low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon – moving eastward
and affecting parts of the FL peninsula tonight. Visible satellite
imagery appears to confirm this development about 150nm west of FMY.
As this low approaches the FMY/TPA region after dark, vertical shear
profiles will slowly increase and become more favorable for rotating
storms. All CAM guidance suggests that a few intense cells may
occur over Gulf waters, but indicate that movement/development of
potentially severe storms inland is unlikely. Therefore will
maintain current outlook categories but continue to evaluate the
risk through the day.

..Hart/Bentley.. 11/14/2019


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