Valid 100100Z – 101200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA…AND OVER NORTHERN OREGON…
Severe storms remain possible across parts of southeast South Dakota
into northeast Nebraska with damaging winds and perhaps a brief
tornado. Isolated severe wind gusts or marginal hail are also
possible across northern Oregon this evening.
A cluster of storms/MCS with embedded midlevel rotation is
propagating east/southeast across the SD/NE border, likely producing
damaging winds and hail. Northwest winds aloft along with a
southwesterly low-level jet increasing to 40 kt will continue to
support this complex as it moves wholly into NE. Veering winds with
height may support a brief tornado for the more cellular parts of
the complex, but the tendency for merged outflows will maximize
damaging wind potential.
Scattered storms persist across much of central and eastern Oregon
and into southwest Idaho and northern Nevada, beneath cold
temperatures aloft as the upper low moves ashore. Pockets of steep
low-level lapse rates ahead of any storms will foster strong outflow
winds, possibly damaging. Moisture content is maximized over
northern Oregon, and this may favor marginal hail at times as storms
move into that area.