Valid 141300Z – 151200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
…SUMMARY…
A few thunderstorms are expected across Florida into coastal
portions of the Carolinas mainly tonight.
…Florida…
Multiple semi-distinct branches of westerlies will phase in the
southern stream over the Southeast States and Gulf of Mexico through
tonight. In response, a weak surface low should develop over the
eastern Gulf Basin then track toward the Florida coast late
tonight/early Friday.
Initial boundary-layer conditions are not that moist/buoyant across
the Florida Peninsula. The modified warm sector that will be drawn
north ahead of the surface low should struggle to generate
appreciable instability over inland areas prior to frontal passage.
Even so, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop off the
Florida Gulf Coast later this afternoon into tonight, where
instability will be much more supportive of robust updrafts.
Deep-layer shear along with low-level hodograph length/curvature are
expected to gradually increase tonight, but forecast soundings still
generally depict the persistence of a flow weakness around 2-3 km
AGL. While hodographs could conditionally support a few organized
storms/supercells, this flow weakness in conjunction with modest
parcel accelerations via the possible persistence of a shallow
surface stable layer is currently expected to limit updraft
intensity and keep the severe potential low over inland areas,
although a few strong storms could approach the western Peninsula
this evening. Guidance/observational trends will be reevaluated
today for any possible need for low-end (Marginal) severe
probabilities.
..Guyer.. 11/14/2019
$$