Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 141200Z – 151200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
A few thunderstorms are expected across Florida into coastal
portions of the Carolinas.

…Southeastern US…

Late-evening satellite imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough over northern Mexico. This feature is expected to be shunted
east across the northern Gulf as mid-level heights fall over the
Mid-South ahead of a digging trough. In response to this feature,
weak surface low should develop over the eastern Gulf Basin then
track toward the FL coast after 15/06z. Initial boundary-layer
conditions are not that moist/buoyant across the Peninsula. The
modified warm sector that will be drawn north ahead of the surface
low should struggle to generate appreciable instability prior to
frontal passage. Even so, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop off the FL Gulf coast where instability will be much more
supportive of robust updrafts. This convection will develop within
an increasingly sheared environment ahead of the aforementioned
short wave. Some organization is possible over the warmer Gulf
waters and this activity will spread toward the FL coast after
sunset. However, convection should weaken due to less buoyant air
mass over land. Current thinking is the threat for severe wind gusts
will be minimized inland, though gusty winds could be noted with
storms near the coast. Toward sunrise, surface low should reorganize
off the northeast FL coast, and deep convection should focus along a
southwest-northeast oriented warm front off the Carolinas coast.

..Darrow/Cook.. 11/14/2019

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