Valid 131630Z – 141200Z
…NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today.
…Synopsis…
A southern stream shortwave trough over northern Mexico will move
slowly eastward to south TX by tonight. Ascent preceding this wave
will occur atop a cold low-level air mass, with any substantial
low-level destabilization expected to remain offshore with a
modifying air mass. Forecast soundings show some possibility for
weak buoyancy rooted near 850 mb over south TX after 06-09z, but the
threat for elevated thunderstorms over south TX appears too marginal
to warrant an outlook area. Otherwise, some shallow convection is
expected along a weakening front near the southeast FL coast, but
thunderstorms are unlikely inland.
..Thompson.. 11/13/2019
$$