Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 131630Z – 141200Z


Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today.

A southern stream shortwave trough over northern Mexico will move
slowly eastward to south TX by tonight. Ascent preceding this wave
will occur atop a cold low-level air mass, with any substantial
low-level destabilization expected to remain offshore with a
modifying air mass. Forecast soundings show some possibility for
weak buoyancy rooted near 850 mb over south TX after 06-09z, but the
threat for elevated thunderstorms over south TX appears too marginal
to warrant an outlook area. Otherwise, some shallow convection is
expected along a weakening front near the southeast FL coast, but
thunderstorms are unlikely inland.

..Thompson.. 11/13/2019


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