Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 131300Z – 141200Z


Thunderstorms are not expected across the country today.

An amplified large-scale pattern will persist over North America
through the period, with multiple splits in the westerlies from the
Great Lakes to the southern Plains. In the southern stream, a
shortwave trough will eject east-northeastward over northern Mexico
today, reaching Deep South Texas late tonight. While cooler
mid-level temperatures will overspread southern Texas in association
with this shortwave trough, forecast soundings do not exhibit
appreciable MUCAPE for deep elevated convection capable of
generating lightning. As a result, any meaningful potential of
thunderstorms should be relegated to interior Mexico and/or the
western Gulf of Mexico late tonight.

Elsewhere, a front has continued to move southward across southern
Florida. Poor lapse rates and weak forcing suggest that
lightning-producing convection should remain off the south Florida

..Guyer.. 11/13/2019


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