Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 131200Z – 141200Z


Thunderstorms are not expected across the country today.


Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is forecast to eject across
northern Mexico into south TX by the end of the period. In response
to this feature, primary zone of low-level confluence is expected to
remain off the TX Coast as surface ridging holds across the TX
coastal plain. While cooler mid-level temperatures will overspread
this region in association with the short wave, forecast soundings
do not exhibit appreciable MUCAPE for deep elevated convection
capable of generating lightning. As a result, any meaningful threat
of thunderstorms should be noted with the offshore boundary.

Downstream, synoptic front has moved off the southern FL Peninsula
and low-level convergence should remain east-south of this region.
Poor lapse rates and weak forcing strongly suggest any threat for
convection will remain offshore.

..Darrow.. 11/13/2019


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