Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 112000Z – 121200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible today into tonight from
south/east Texas into Arkansas and Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms
are not expected.

…DISCUSSION…
A few tweaks to the northern end of the thunder area over northern
the northern Arkansas vicinity have been made for this outlook
update, as a few strikes have strayed just outside the prior thunder
line. Otherwise, the ongoing forecast remains on track.

..Goss.. 11/11/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019/

…Synopsis…
An arctic cold front is surging southeastward across the southern
Plains toward the lower MS Valley, in association with a northern
stream shortwave trough crossing the upper Midwest. The 12z OUN
sounding revealed a few hundred J/kg of CAPE in the 700-400 mb
layer, with equilibrium level temperatures cold enough for mixed
phase and charge separation (colder than -20 C). A few elevated
thunderstorms may occur today atop the frontal surface and in the
zone of lingering warm advection from extreme eastern OK into
AR/northern LA, but storm coverage should remain isolated. Other
isolated thunderstorms may also occur along or just behind the cold
front in TX. The relatively greater thunderstorm chances will be
across the lower Rio Grande Valley this evening into early tonight
in the zone of ascent along and immediately north of the surface
cold front.

$$

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