Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 111300Z – 121200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Oklahoma,
eastern and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley region.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

…Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi River Valley…
A highly amplified longwave pattern will continue to evolve, with an
increasingly prevalent upper trough east of the Rockies. A strong
cold front, extending from the Ozarks southwestward into
eastern/southern Oklahoma and west/southwest Texas at daybreak, will
continue to steadily advance generally southeastward today and reach
the western/northern Gulf of Mexico tonight.

Preceding this front, dewpoints generally in the 50s to near
60F will advect through the warm sector beneath modest lapse rates
and support weak instability (MUCAPE generally near or below 500
J/kg). While most of the convection will be too shallow for
lightning, the convective layer might become sufficient for a few
thunderstorms mainly in an elevated nature behind the front.

..Guyer.. 11/11/2019


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