Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 111200Z – 121200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Oklahoma,
eastern and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley region. No
severe weather is expected.

…Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley…

In association with an amplifying synoptic trough over the eastern
half of the country, a strong cold front will surge southward
through the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley regions
today. Preceding the front, dewpoints generally in the 50s to near
60F will advect through the warm sector beneath modest lapse rates
supporting weak instability (MUCAPE generally near or below 500
J/kg). Elevated convection will likely be ongoing in frontal zone
from OK into AR at the start of the period. While most of this
activity will be too shallow for lightning, the convective layer
might become sufficient for a few thunderstorms. Additional, mostly
shallow convection will likely develop along the length of the front
through TX during the day. Greatest chance for thunderstorms will
probably be across south TX, especially in post frontal zone late
today into this evening where a deeper unstable layer is expected to

..Dial.. 11/11/2019


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