Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 102000Z – 111200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
A few thunderstorms are possible over southwest Texas late this
afternoon into evening, and across parts of Oklahoma into the
Ark-La-Tex region late this evening into daybreak Monday.

…20Z Outlook Update…
Categorical/10 percent thunderstorm probabilities have been expanded
a bit, northwestward into portions of central Oklahoma. This is
where, based on positioning of the southward advancing cold front,
pre-frontal warm advection and increasing instability, model output
(including the 10/12Z ECMWF and latest Rapid Refresh) suggests that
convection capable of producing lightning could initiate as early as
05-07Z.

..Kerr.. 11/10/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2019/

…Synopsis…
A northern stream trough will amplify over the northern Plains/upper
MS Valley, and an associated cold front will surge southward to the
I-44 corridor in OK/MO by 12z Monday. Air mass modification and
moisture return is underway from the western Gulf of Mexico into TX,
and boundary-layer dewpoints will increase gradually into the mid
60s across south TX by early Monday. Moistening above the surface,
in combination with low-level warm advection in advance of the cold
front, could support some weak elevated thunderstorms in the
vicinity of southeast OK late tonight into early Monday.

Farther southwest, a weak midlevel low will drift eastward over
northern Baja, while a low-midlevel moisture plume will be
maintained from northern Mexico into southwest TX. Surface heating
and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s will support weak
surface-based buoyancy this afternoon across southwest TX, where
isolated thunderstorms may form over the high terrain.

$$

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