Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 101630Z – 111200Z


A few thunderstorms are possible over southwest Texas late this
afternoon into evening and across eastern Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex
region late tonight. No severe weather is expected.

A northern stream trough will amplify over the northern Plains/upper
MS Valley, and an associated cold front will surge southward to the
I-44 corridor in OK/MO by 12z Monday. Air mass modification and
moisture return is underway from the western Gulf of Mexico into TX,
and boundary-layer dewpoints will increase gradually into the mid
60s across south TX by early Monday. Moistening above the surface,
in combination with low-level warm advection in advance of the cold
front, could support some weak elevated thunderstorms in the
vicinity of southeast OK late tonight into early Monday.

Farther southwest, a weak midlevel low will drift eastward over
northern Baja, while a low-midlevel moisture plume will be
maintained from northern Mexico into southwest TX. Surface heating
and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s will support weak
surface-based buoyancy this afternoon across southwest TX, where
isolated thunderstorms may form over the high terrain.

..Thompson/Bentley.. 11/10/2019


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