Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 101300Z – 111200Z


A few thunderstorms are possible over southwest Texas late this
afternoon into evening and across eastern Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex
region late tonight. No severe weather is expected.

…Southwest Texas…
Modest boundary layer moisture with surface dewpoints in the low 50s
F will exist in vicinity of a weak surface trough this afternoon.
Diabatic heating and modest mid-level lapse rates will result in
weak instability this afternoon with 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE expected.
An upper low just off the coast of southern California is forecast
to drift slowly east, while a weak vorticity maxima may move into
far west Texas later today and this evening. As the atmosphere
destabilizes, a few thunderstorms might develop over the higher
terrain of west Texas and/or spread into the region from northern
Mexico late this afternoon and early evening, before diminishing by
mid-late evening.

…Eastern Oklahoma/ArkLaTex…
On the southern fringes of an amplifying northern-stream upper
trough, moisture will increase across the region tonight ahead of a
south/southeastward-advancing cold front. Modest theta-e
advection/isentropic ascent in conjunction with weak elevated
buoyancy should allow for isolated thunderstorms mainly after

..Guyer.. 11/10/2019


Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.