Valid 101200Z – 111200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
A few thunderstorms are possible over southwest Texas late this
afternoon into the early evening and in the Ark-La-Tex region very
late Sunday night. No severe weather is expected.
Boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 50s F currently reside over
southwest TX. Diabatic heating of the surface-layer and modest
mid-level lapse rates will result in weak instability this afternoon
with 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE expected. An upper low just off the coast
of southern CA is forecast to drift slowly east to near the Baja CA
area by early evening. Potential will exist for weak vorticity
maxima to rotate through this feature and into far west TX later
today and this evening. As the atmosphere destabilizes, a few
thunderstorms might develop over the higher terrain of west TX or
spread into this region from northern Mexico late this afternoon and
early evening before diminishing by mid-late evening.
Within an amplifying northern stream upper trough, a southwesterly
low-level jet is forecast to undergo a modest increase late Sunday
night across the Southern Plains, resulting in positive theta-e
advection and 200-400 J/kg MUCAPE. A few elevated thunderstorms
might develop within this regime of isentropic ascent and
destabilization toward the end of the period.