Valid 092000Z – 101200Z
…NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
…SUMMARY…
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
through the remainder of the afternoon and tonight.
…20Z Outlook Update…
Low-level cold advection appears to be contributing to stabilizing
trends across southern Florida and the Keys, with latest objective
analysis indicating stronger low-level convergence now focused well
south of the Keys. Potential for additional thunderstorm activity
is becoming increasingly negligible, with generally dry and/or
stable conditions prevailing elsewhere across the nation.
..Kerr.. 11/09/2019
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2019/
…Synopsis…
A cold front continues to move southward into the FL Straits, and
the primary threat for thunderstorms will likewise shift southward
with the front this afternoon. Some weak elevated convection may
occur through early afternoon over south FL, but buoyancy will
likely remain insufficient for thunderstorms. A few shallow
convective rain showers will also be possible along the FL Atlantic
coast in the onshore, post-frontal flow regime, but convective cloud
depth should remain too shallow for charge separation/lightning
production.
Farther west, a midlevel moisture plume has spread as far north as
extreme southeast AZ/southwest NM, downstream from a weak midlevel
low just west of the northern Baja coast. The 12z soundings from
TUS and EPZ, as well as RAP and NAM forecast soundings, show some
potential for weak convection in the 700-450 mb layer. However,
cloud depth should remain too shallow to warrant adding a
thunderstorm area.
$$