Valid 091630Z – 101200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
…SUMMARY…
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the Florida Keys for
the next couple of hours.
…Synopsis…
A cold front continues to move southward into the FL Straits, and
the primary threat for thunderstorms will likewise shift southward
with the front this afternoon. Some weak elevated convection may
occur through early afternoon over south FL, but buoyancy will
likely remain insufficient for thunderstorms. A few shallow
convective rain showers will also be possible along the FL Atlantic
coast in the onshore, post-frontal flow regime, but convective cloud
depth should remain too shallow for charge separation/lightning
production.
Farther west, a midlevel moisture plume has spread as far north as
extreme southeast AZ/southwest NM, downstream from a weak midlevel
low just west of the northern Baja coast. The 12z soundings from
TUS and EPZ, as well as RAP and NAM forecast soundings, show some
potential for weak convection in the 700-450 mb layer. However,
cloud depth should remain too shallow to warrant adding a
thunderstorm area.
..Thompson/Bentley.. 11/09/2019
$$