Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 081630Z – 091200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. mainland

Within a broad cyclonic flow regime aloft over the eastern CONUS, an
embedded speed max will translate from the Red River Valley of TX/OK
to north FL overnight. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will
continue to move southward across the central and southern FL
Peninsula. Surface heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in
the warm sector, and the potential for a few thunderstorms along the
front, as well as the east coast sea breeze. While deep-layer
vertical shear will be on the lower margins for organized severe
storms, low-level shear will remain weak, and midlevel lapse rates
will be modest at best (6-6.5 C/km). A strong storm or two will be
possible just off the FL Atlantic coast where the richest low-level
moisture resides, but severe storms are not expected inland.

Elsewhere, the only area with any potential for deep convection will
be overnight near the AZ/NM/Mexico border region. Some low-mid
tropospheric moistening will occur downstream of a weak midlevel
trough just off the northwest Baja coast, and some weak midlevel
convection will be possible tonight. However, ascent and buoyancy
will be quite marginal, and the threat for thunderstorms appears too
low to warrant an outlook area.

..Thompson/Bentley.. 11/08/2019


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