Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 071300Z – 081200Z


Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely today across the contiguous
United States.

…Synopsis and Discussion…
A large-scale upper trough will amplify today as it moves eastward
across central/eastern Canada and the eastern CONUS. A shortwave
trough centered along the AZ/NM border this morning should continue
to deamplify as it moves eastward into confluent mid-level flow.
Recent surface analysis shows a cold front extending from southern
Quebec southwestward across western NY, continuing into the OH/mid
MS Valleys and southern Plains. This front will continue
eastward/southward through the period. A plume of low/mid-level
moisture will remain across the pre-frontal warm sector.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop later today mainly along/ahead of
the cold front across parts of central/south TX and portions of the
Southeast. Poor mid-level lapse rates and widespread cloudiness will
remain over both of these regions, which will likely limit
instability this afternoon. Greater storm coverage may be realized
across parts of the mid/upper TX Coast by peak afternoon heating,
but this region will remain displaced to the south of stronger
mid-level westerly flow aloft. Widely scattered storms may also form
across southern AL and the FL Panhandle along/ahead of the front,
but weak instability should temper updraft intensity. All these
limiting factors suggest that organized severe storms are unlikely
across the CONUS today.

..Gleason.. 11/07/2019


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