Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 071200Z – 081200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected today across the United States

…Texas through the Southeast States…

Northern-stream synoptic upper trough will undergo amplification and
move through the eastern U.S. today. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough
over AZ will shear and weaken as it moves east into the evolving
confluent flow regime over the Southern Plains. At the surface a
cold front initially from the lower Great Lakes into southwest TX
will advance southeast, moving offshore later this evening. Plume of
deep subtropical moisture will continue spreading through the
moistening pre-frontal warm sector over the southern states.
However, instability will remain generally well below 1000 J/kg due
to poor lapse rates and widespread multi-layer clouds. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms will develop in this regime, primarily
within the southward-advancing frontal zone from TX into the
Southeast States during the day. The stronger winds aloft will
remain north of the moist warm sector, which along with the weak
thermodynamic environment suggest severe storms are unlikely.

..Dial/Karstens.. 11/07/2019


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